The paradox of the clumps mathematically explained

The lumpy distribution of species along a continuous one-dimensional niche axis recently found by Scheffer and van Nes (Scheffer and van Ness 2006) is explained mathematically. We show that it emerges simply from the eigenvalue and eigenvectors of the community matrix. Both the transient patterns—lumps and gaps between them—as well as the asymptotic equilibrium are explained. If the species are evenly distributed along the niche axis, the emergence of these patterns can be demonstrated analytically. The more general case, of randomly distributed species, shows only slight deviations and is illustrated by numerical simulation. This is a robust result whenever the finiteness of the niche is taken into account: it can be extended to different analytic dependence of the interaction coefficients with the distance on the niche axis (i.e., different kernel interactions), different boundary conditions, etc. We also found that there is a critical value both for the width of the species distribution s and the number of species n below which the clusterization disappear

Resilience: Accounting for the Noncomputable

Plans to solve complex environmental problems should always consider the role of surprise. Nevertheless, there is a tendency to emphasize known computable aspects of a problem while neglecting aspects that are unknown and failing to ask questions about them. The tendency to ignore the noncomputable can be countered by considering a wide range of perspectives, encouraging transparency with regard to conflicting viewpoints, stimulating a diversity of models, and managing for the emergence of new syntheses that reorganize fragmentary knowledg

A geometric condition implying energy equality for solutions of 3D Navier-Stokes equation

We prove that every weak solution $u$ to the 3D Navier-Stokes equation that belongs to the class $L^3L^{9/2}$ and \n u belongs to $L^3L^{9/5}$ localy away from a 1/2-H\"{o}lder continuous curve in time satisfies the generalized energy equality. In particular every such solution is suitable.Comment: 10 page

Use of open-top chambers to study the effect of climate change in aquatic ecosystems

The aim of this research was to explore the possibility to use inexpensive open-top chambers (OTCs) as passive artificial warming devices in experimental aquatic studies. Our results show that OTCs give a significant temperature increase compared with the control. The measured increase (up to an average of 2.3°C) corresponds with predicted climatic warming. Due to their open top, the light quantity and quality is only minimally reduced. We found that OTCs are especially suited for studying the effect of climate change in small waters as the vertical temperature gradients remain unchanged. They can also easily be transported to remote environments. We discuss other advantages and disadvantages of these devices for aquatic studies and compare them with other warming devices

Nonlinear softening as a predictive precursor to climate tipping

Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes increasingly precarious in the presence of noisy disturbances. We consider an underlying potential, as defined theoretically for a saddle-node fold and (via averaging) for a Hopf bifurcation. Close to a stable state, this potential has a parabolic form; but approaching a jump it becomes increasingly dominated by softening nonlinearities. If we have already detected a decrease in the linear decay rate, nonlinear information allows us to estimate the propensity for early tipping due to noise. We argue that one needs to extract information about the nonlinear features (a "softening") of the underlying potential from the time series to judge the probability and timing of tipping. This analysis is the logical next step if one has detected a decrease of the linear decay rate. If there is no discernable trend in the linear analysis, nonlinear softening is even more important in showing the proximity to tipping. After extensive normal form calibration studies, we check two geological time series from paleo-climate tipping events for softening of the underlying well. For the ending of the last ice age, where we find no convincing linear precursor, we identify a statistically significant nonlinear softening towards increasing temperature. The analysis has thus successfully detected a warning of the imminent tipping event.Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures, changed title back, corrected smaller mistakes, updated reference

Partial Regularity of solutions to the Four-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations at the first blow-up time

The solutions of incompressible Navier-Stokes equations in four spatial dimensions are considered. We prove that the two-dimensional Hausdorff measure of the set of singular points at the first blow-up time is equal to zero.Comment: 19 pages, a comment regarding five or higher dimensional case is added in Remark 1.3. accepted by Comm. Math. Phy

Omnivory by planktivores stabilizes plankton dynamics, but may either promote or reduce algal biomass

Classical models of phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction show that with nutrient enrichment such systems may abruptly shift from limit cycles to stable phytoplankton domination due to zooplankton predation by planktivorous fish. Such models assume that planktivorous fish eat only zooplankton, but there are various species of filter-feeding fish that may also feed on phytoplankton. Here, we extend these classical models to systematically explore the effects of omnivory by planktivorous fish. Our analysis indicates that if fish forage on phytoplankton in addition to zooplankton, the alternative attractors predicted by the classical models disappear for all realistic parameter settings, even if omnivorous fish have a strong preference for zooplankton. Our model also shows that the level of fish biomass above which zooplankton collapse should be higher when fish are omnivorous than when fish are zooplanktivorous. We also used the model to explore the potential effects of the now increasingly common practice of stocking lakes with filter-feeding fish to control cyanobacteria. Because omnivorous filter-feeding fish forage on phytoplankton as well as on the main grazers of phytoplankton, the net effect of such fish on the phytoplankton biomass is not obvious. Our model suggests that there may be a unimodal relationship between the biomass of omnivorous filter-feeding fish and the biomass of phytoplankton. This implies that to manage for reductions in phytoplankton biomass, heavy stocking or strong reduction of such fish is bes